Loudoun Real Estate Blog

The stricter lending standards, falling home vallues and tough economy is affecting everyone. However, the National Association of Realtors reported that for the 3rd quarter of this year, sales and median home prices fell across the United States expect in four states. Those four states were Nevada, California, Arizona and Virginia.  In Loudoun County, sales seem to have slowed lately though. During the entire month of October, 414 homes went under contract in Loudoun County. In November, there were only 382 homes to go under contract. It will be interesting to see how this compares to the rest of the country.  

At a recent workshop, Roger Arnold, a macro economist who does consulting for government agencies, stated that the Washington D.C. Metro Area is the most promising real estate market in the world. He gave three main points:

1. Washington has become the center of the world politically and now financially with the implosion of Wall Street, the size of the bailout and global recession.

2. The country is going through a deflationary period in the private sectors that will be offset by an increase in government.

3. The Washington DC area has a shortage of residential housing, office space and adequate transportation.

The future of the Washington D.C. area housing market may be brighter than other parts of the country.

After a relatively active real estate market over the summer, it seems everything came to a halt in September-at least in the upper price ranges. The market data confirms this. According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.-MLS Resale Data, in the Ashburn zip code of 20147 during the period from 9/01/08-9/30/08 there were 24 active listings over $800,000 and not one sold during that time. Overall in the 20147 zip code there were 310 active listings with 59 selling during the month of September which basically represents a little over 5 months of inventory.

The Sterling/Potomac Falls zip code of 20165 fared a little better. During the period of 9/1/08-9/30/08, there were 167 active listings with 33 homes selling during the same time period. This represents a 5 month invenotry.  Unlike Ashburn, the upper price ranges did still have some activity in September. During the month of September, there were 6 active listings in the 20165 zip code listed above $800,000 with two homes selling during that time over $800,000.

Hopefully, things will settle down and activity will pick up over the next few months. There definitely are some great buys out there.

Washington, D.C. metro area, Arlington and Alexandria recently made the top ten list in Forbes.com’s “Best Places To Buy Foreclosed Homes” published on March 19, 2008. Their goal was to identifiy markets where there were hints of stabilization and that properties in foreclosure may be a good investment. To compile the list, they took the country’s 100 largest metro areas and ranked them by annual foreclosure rate. Only cities on Forbes’ best places list, which measures criteria such as quality of life and the local economy were considered. Then they compared how real estate prices have moved since 2006 and compared the spread between median prices and foreclosure prices. The Washington, D.C. metro area and suburbs was ranked #10 with a Median home price of $366,583, Foreclosure savings of $56,858, Foreclosure rate of 1.16% and a Price change from 2006-2007 of 0.77%. To see the complete article click here.

Our mid-month housing market analysis for Loudoun County, Sterling VA, Ashburn VA and Leesburg VA shows signs of staying relatively flat from last month’s numbers. To generate the numbers, we combined what has already sold as well as what is currently under contract with a closing date within April 2008

Loudoun County

Overall, the county will sell roughly 172 detached homes and 156 townhomes as compared to last month a total of 171 detached and 157 townhomes. The average sales price is currently lower than last month for detached homes and higher for townhomes. Lets see if the numbers change once the end of the month is here and all the sales have been entered.

Sterling / Potomac Falls (20165) Virginia

Sterling’s numbers are currently 19 detached homes and 17 townhomes, which will be higher than the 10 detached and 15 townhomes that sold last month. Currently, the average sales price is lower than last month for both detached homes and townhomes.

Ashburn (20147) Virginia

Ashburn doesn’t look like it will be able to keep up the improving trend since the beginning of the year. Each month since January 2008 for both detached and townhouses the number of homes sold has increased. Currently, it appears 17 detached homes and 32 townhouses will sell by the end of the month which is down slightly from 19 detached and 38 townhomes. The average sales price is a bit lower for detached and higher for townhouses.

Leesburg (20176) Virginia

The Leesburg detached home run up in activity looks like it will not be sustainable. Currently a total of 18 detached homes are set to settle in April, down from a high of 28 homes in March. The townhouse market in Leesburg is up a little to 27 townhomes to sell from 21 in March. The average sales price is looking higher than last month for townhomes but lower from detached.

The Loudoun County housing market overall was mixed for the month of March. Overall, Loudoun County did see an increase in the number of homes sold since last month, which is definitely a positive. The market is still trying to recover from the credit crisis which definitely affected housing sales in August and September of 2007. Another drop in the market occurred in December of 2007. The average sales price continues to decrease as we head full swing into the spring market. Unless the number of homes selling each month increases, the odds of home sale prices stabilizing is probably not realistic.

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According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc., the statistics for February resale homes in Loudoun County were dismal. In the 20147 zip code of Ashburn, there was only 1 sale for the month of February for homes listed for $700,000 or more. There were 46 homes on the market in the 20147 zip code during that same time period. Obviously, 1 out of 47 are not good odds. Unfortunately, the 20165 zip code of Sterling/Potomac Falls was even worse if it is possible. During the month of February, there were no sales in homes listed over $700,000 and 19 homes listed for sale over $700,000 during that same time period. Hopefully, the increased FHA and conforming/Jumbo loan amount increases will help. I will keep you posted.

We are continuing to see an increase in activity at several of our listings. To follow up on my post from the middle of January, sales remained down in 20165 & Ashburn comparing 2007 vs 2008! In January of 2007 there were 66 contracts to ratify compared to 38 in January of 2008. That puts the number of ratified contracts down 42% for January in 20165. In looking at Ashburn, there were 183 contracts ratified in January of 2007 vs. 95 ratified contracts in 2008. That puts the number of ratified contracts down 48% in the Ashburn zip codes. We are seeing an increase in traffic and got a townhome under contract in Ashburn Village this weekend so we will see how sales continue in February!

We had an increase in showings across the board this past weekend compared to the number of showings last weekend. Although, in looking at the market and comparing 2007 to this year, the number of ratified contracts so far in 2008 is down in Ashburn & the Sterling/Potomac Falls zip codes. Comparing ratified contracts in the first three weeks of 2007 vs. the first three weeks of 2008 the data is as follows:
In the Sterling/Potomac Falls 20165 zip code, there were 42 contracts ratified in the first three weeks of 2007 compared to the 25 this year which puts the number ratified contracts down 40%. In Ashburn, there were 105 contracts ratified in the first three weeks of 2007 & there have been 52 this year which puts the number of ratified contracts down 50%.

We have seen a slight increase in traffic at our listings and hope that this increase in activity will generate more contracts to make the last 10 days of the month increase the overall sales for January.