Loudoun Real Estate Blog

I have been doing some pricing analysis on home sales in Belmont Country Club in Ashburn, Virginia. The last three homes to sell in Belmont Country Club were bank owned or relocation company owned homes.  All three homes sold at $160-$166 per square foot above grade. I used the above grade square footage as determined by the county tax records. I figured that using the above grade square footage per the tax records would be easiest for consistency and then could add or subtract a dollar amount based on condition, finished basement, upgrades, etc. In September there were several sales of homes that sold for $180-200/sq. ft. above grade and a bank owned home that sold for $159/sq. ft. above grade. Of the homes currently available in Belmont Country Club, I know that at least two homes have offers in. Both of these homes are listed for $190-$195/sq. ft. above grade which supports our analysis. Basically, it looks like if you want to sell a home in Belmont Country Club, the price needs to be below $200/sq. ft. above grade. There are currently homes listed for sale at prices as high as $280/sq. ft. above grade. Obviously, they need to read this blog post.

The stricter lending standards, falling home vallues and tough economy is affecting everyone. However, the National Association of Realtors reported that for the 3rd quarter of this year, sales and median home prices fell across the United States expect in four states. Those four states were Nevada, California, Arizona and Virginia.  In Loudoun County, sales seem to have slowed lately though. During the entire month of October, 414 homes went under contract in Loudoun County. In November, there were only 382 homes to go under contract. It will be interesting to see how this compares to the rest of the country.  

At a recent workshop, Roger Arnold, a macro economist who does consulting for government agencies, stated that the Washington D.C. Metro Area is the most promising real estate market in the world. He gave three main points:

1. Washington has become the center of the world politically and now financially with the implosion of Wall Street, the size of the bailout and global recession.

2. The country is going through a deflationary period in the private sectors that will be offset by an increase in government.

3. The Washington DC area has a shortage of residential housing, office space and adequate transportation.

The future of the Washington D.C. area housing market may be brighter than other parts of the country.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 authorizes a $7,500 tax credit for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing homes on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009. This is a great opportunity for first-time home buyers. A tax credit is a dollar-for-dollar reduction in what the taxpayer owes. The home buyer is required to repay the credit to the government without interest over 15 years or whenever they sell the house. First-time home buyer is defined in the law as a buyer who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase. There are income limitations but even so those buyers would be eligible for partial tax credits. All buyers are encouraged to consult a qualified tax advisor or legal professional to fully understand the benefits and limitations.

After a relatively active real estate market over the summer, it seems everything came to a halt in September-at least in the upper price ranges. The market data confirms this. According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.-MLS Resale Data, in the Ashburn zip code of 20147 during the period from 9/01/08-9/30/08 there were 24 active listings over $800,000 and not one sold during that time. Overall in the 20147 zip code there were 310 active listings with 59 selling during the month of September which basically represents a little over 5 months of inventory.

The Sterling/Potomac Falls zip code of 20165 fared a little better. During the period of 9/1/08-9/30/08, there were 167 active listings with 33 homes selling during the same time period. This represents a 5 month invenotry.  Unlike Ashburn, the upper price ranges did still have some activity in September. During the month of September, there were 6 active listings in the 20165 zip code listed above $800,000 with two homes selling during that time over $800,000.

Hopefully, things will settle down and activity will pick up over the next few months. There definitely are some great buys out there.

Washington, D.C. metro area, Arlington and Alexandria recently made the top ten list in Forbes.com’s “Best Places To Buy Foreclosed Homes” published on March 19, 2008. Their goal was to identifiy markets where there were hints of stabilization and that properties in foreclosure may be a good investment. To compile the list, they took the country’s 100 largest metro areas and ranked them by annual foreclosure rate. Only cities on Forbes’ best places list, which measures criteria such as quality of life and the local economy were considered. Then they compared how real estate prices have moved since 2006 and compared the spread between median prices and foreclosure prices. The Washington, D.C. metro area and suburbs was ranked #10 with a Median home price of $366,583, Foreclosure savings of $56,858, Foreclosure rate of 1.16% and a Price change from 2006-2007 of 0.77%. To see the complete article click here.

Effective June 1, 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have dropped their “declining market” policy requiring an addition 5% down payment for properties determined to be in declining or “at risk” markets. Hopefully this will impact Jumbo loans as well as conforming loans but a formal announcement has not been made. This is good news for buyers and sellers especially in neighborhoods that are categorized as “declining.” Hopefully, programs will continue to be announced to help buyers and sellers in this market.

I attended a seminar sponsored by Countrywide Mortgage on Tuesday May 6th at the Crowne Plaza in Tysons Corner, Virginia which featured Tom Fiddler, an expert in the real estate industry. It definitely put the current real estate market in perspective. He gave some background about the bond ratings of mortgages, etc. but more importantly emphasized that we need to "celebrate affordability" and I couldn’t agree more. Home prices are down and household income is still up. The final piece of the puzzle is interest rates-which are still so low. It is one of the most affordable times to buy a home nationwide in two decades! Obviously, at some point, probably after the election, interest rates will have to rise.

Mr. Fiddler also emphasized using FHA to the fullest. Not only do FHA loans typically end up being cheaper than conventional loans right now, if home prices were to stay flat or even go lower and interest rates go higher, the sellers who have FHA loans will be in a much better selling position because of the assumability of FHA loans. Tom Fiddler was an excellent speaker and I highly recommend seeing a seminar if you have an opportunity.

Thats right! On April 26th Loudoun County wants you to feel free to dump that hazardous waste off and get it out of your home to be properly disposed of. The county has a fabulous program dealing with household hazardous materials which I don’t think many people know about. From March to November the county has monthly drop off locations at different areas through-out the county to make it convenient for people to dispose of anything the trash company won’t take or shouldn’t go into the county landfill.

This month’s location is at Loudoun Valley High School 340 N. Maple Avenue, Purcellville Virginia between the hours of 8:30am and 2:30pm. For more information visit the county’s website .

Not sure what is hazardous waste? Click here for a list of common household items .

Our mid-month housing market analysis for Loudoun County, Sterling VA, Ashburn VA and Leesburg VA shows signs of staying relatively flat from last month’s numbers. To generate the numbers, we combined what has already sold as well as what is currently under contract with a closing date within April 2008

Loudoun County

Overall, the county will sell roughly 172 detached homes and 156 townhomes as compared to last month a total of 171 detached and 157 townhomes. The average sales price is currently lower than last month for detached homes and higher for townhomes. Lets see if the numbers change once the end of the month is here and all the sales have been entered.

Sterling / Potomac Falls (20165) Virginia

Sterling’s numbers are currently 19 detached homes and 17 townhomes, which will be higher than the 10 detached and 15 townhomes that sold last month. Currently, the average sales price is lower than last month for both detached homes and townhomes.

Ashburn (20147) Virginia

Ashburn doesn’t look like it will be able to keep up the improving trend since the beginning of the year. Each month since January 2008 for both detached and townhouses the number of homes sold has increased. Currently, it appears 17 detached homes and 32 townhouses will sell by the end of the month which is down slightly from 19 detached and 38 townhomes. The average sales price is a bit lower for detached and higher for townhouses.

Leesburg (20176) Virginia

The Leesburg detached home run up in activity looks like it will not be sustainable. Currently a total of 18 detached homes are set to settle in April, down from a high of 28 homes in March. The townhouse market in Leesburg is up a little to 27 townhomes to sell from 21 in March. The average sales price is looking higher than last month for townhomes but lower from detached.

Open Houses might expose your home to more than potential buyers. It may expose your home to a possible burglary. A Leesburg woman was recently charged with 34 crimes related to accusations that she used her position at a moving company to attend open houses and burglarize homes. There have been several homes burglarized in Loudoun County since November 2007 many of which resulted from an Open House.  See the full story here.  I am happy to do Open Houses for my clients but do not think it is the most effective way to sell homes. My job is to find the real estate agent that has a qualified and motivated buyer or to find a qualified and motivated buyer myself. The majority of the people who attend Open Houses are considering buying or selling in the future.