Loudoun Real Estate Blog

The real estate market continues to remain stable in Loudoun County. According to Real Estate Business Intelligence (www.rbintel.com), there were 367 homes sold during the month of September 2010 which is down slightly by 6.62% from August 2010. The average sold price in September 2010 was $407,811 which is also down by 3.11% from August 2010 but is up by 5.15% from last year at this time. The average days on market has remained relatively stable and was 56 days during September 2010 according to the statistics. One interesting note is that there were 651 new listings during the month of September as opposed to 568 in August. If that trend continues, then inventory will definitely be increasing.

Sean Glennon, a loan officer with Home Savings & Trust Mortgage, reports that mortgage rates on 30-year fixed mortgages fell to the lowest level in decades for the ninth time in 12 weeks. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is currently a decades low rate of 4.27%. The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage dropped to 3.72% which is the lowest on record dating back to 1991. Rates were pushed down by traders anticipating a move by the Federal Reserve to pump more money into the economy.

If you are thinking about buying a home in the near future, I would recommend buying a home sooner than later. Call Sean Glennon at Home Savings & Trust Mortgage for more details or to get pre-qualified. He can be reached at (703)766-4630. 

Sales existing homes jumped 7.6 percent in April from March according to the National Association of Realtors. In addition, sales were up 22.8 percent from the comparable period a year earlier. Many economists have high expectations for the real estate forecast which is supported by increases in sales and median existing home prices. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, stated recently that “the housing price correction appears essentially over.”  However, there are many analysts that say that the increase in sales only happened with the help of a tax credit. They believe the tax credit caused people to buy earlier than planned and takes away from future sales. The next few months of analyzing the real estate market will be interesting.

Average home prices rose in August for the first time in several years in Loudoun County. According to the MRIS, in August 2009, average home sale prices in Loudoun County are up 5.9% from the same time last year. In addition, the number of homes listed for sale is down 25% from last year in some areas. Buyers have been taking advantage of the combination of low interest rates and depressed prices as well as the temporary tax credit for first-time home buyers.

It has been a busy summer in the real estate market in Loudoun County, Virginia. According to NVAR, in July, 2009 pending and sold transactions for single family detached homes has remained relatively stable while the inventory available is at the lowest point it has been all year, 1369 homes. Obviously, fewer homes on the market should been better prices for sellers. According the NVAR, the average days on market has decreased since February 2009. In July, 2009 the average days on market for single-family detached homes in Loudoun County was 73 days down from over 125 days in February. Could it be the market in Loudoun County is recovering? I would recommend that buyers take advantage quickly of the lower prices and low interest rates.

I have been doing some pricing analysis on home sales in Belmont Country Club in Ashburn, Virginia. The last three homes to sell in Belmont Country Club were bank owned or relocation company owned homes.  All three homes sold at $160-$166 per square foot above grade. I used the above grade square footage as determined by the county tax records. I figured that using the above grade square footage per the tax records would be easiest for consistency and then could add or subtract a dollar amount based on condition, finished basement, upgrades, etc. In September there were several sales of homes that sold for $180-200/sq. ft. above grade and a bank owned home that sold for $159/sq. ft. above grade. Of the homes currently available in Belmont Country Club, I know that at least two homes have offers in. Both of these homes are listed for $190-$195/sq. ft. above grade which supports our analysis. Basically, it looks like if you want to sell a home in Belmont Country Club, the price needs to be below $200/sq. ft. above grade. There are currently homes listed for sale at prices as high as $280/sq. ft. above grade. Obviously, they need to read this blog post.

The stricter lending standards, falling home vallues and tough economy is affecting everyone. However, the National Association of Realtors reported that for the 3rd quarter of this year, sales and median home prices fell across the United States expect in four states. Those four states were Nevada, California, Arizona and Virginia.  In Loudoun County, sales seem to have slowed lately though. During the entire month of October, 414 homes went under contract in Loudoun County. In November, there were only 382 homes to go under contract. It will be interesting to see how this compares to the rest of the country.  

At a recent workshop, Roger Arnold, a macro economist who does consulting for government agencies, stated that the Washington D.C. Metro Area is the most promising real estate market in the world. He gave three main points:

1. Washington has become the center of the world politically and now financially with the implosion of Wall Street, the size of the bailout and global recession.

2. The country is going through a deflationary period in the private sectors that will be offset by an increase in government.

3. The Washington DC area has a shortage of residential housing, office space and adequate transportation.

The future of the Washington D.C. area housing market may be brighter than other parts of the country.

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 authorizes a $7,500 tax credit for qualified first-time home buyers purchasing homes on or after April 9, 2008 and before July 1, 2009. This is a great opportunity for first-time home buyers. A tax credit is a dollar-for-dollar reduction in what the taxpayer owes. The home buyer is required to repay the credit to the government without interest over 15 years or whenever they sell the house. First-time home buyer is defined in the law as a buyer who has not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase. There are income limitations but even so those buyers would be eligible for partial tax credits. All buyers are encouraged to consult a qualified tax advisor or legal professional to fully understand the benefits and limitations.

After a relatively active real estate market over the summer, it seems everything came to a halt in September-at least in the upper price ranges. The market data confirms this. According to the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.-MLS Resale Data, in the Ashburn zip code of 20147 during the period from 9/01/08-9/30/08 there were 24 active listings over $800,000 and not one sold during that time. Overall in the 20147 zip code there were 310 active listings with 59 selling during the month of September which basically represents a little over 5 months of inventory.

The Sterling/Potomac Falls zip code of 20165 fared a little better. During the period of 9/1/08-9/30/08, there were 167 active listings with 33 homes selling during the same time period. This represents a 5 month invenotry.  Unlike Ashburn, the upper price ranges did still have some activity in September. During the month of September, there were 6 active listings in the 20165 zip code listed above $800,000 with two homes selling during that time over $800,000.

Hopefully, things will settle down and activity will pick up over the next few months. There definitely are some great buys out there.

Washington, D.C. metro area, Arlington and Alexandria recently made the top ten list in Forbes.com’s “Best Places To Buy Foreclosed Homes” published on March 19, 2008. Their goal was to identifiy markets where there were hints of stabilization and that properties in foreclosure may be a good investment. To compile the list, they took the country’s 100 largest metro areas and ranked them by annual foreclosure rate. Only cities on Forbes’ best places list, which measures criteria such as quality of life and the local economy were considered. Then they compared how real estate prices have moved since 2006 and compared the spread between median prices and foreclosure prices. The Washington, D.C. metro area and suburbs was ranked #10 with a Median home price of $366,583, Foreclosure savings of $56,858, Foreclosure rate of 1.16% and a Price change from 2006-2007 of 0.77%. To see the complete article click here.